You can see DOOM from here

fig_us_decomp_10

This picture comes from: https://growthecon.com/blog/Decomposition/, and it is a sad story of a whimper, not a bang. It’s doubly sad when you consider we had a bang as well, in 2007.

Anyhow, what you’re looking at here is the shining, increased productivity in some awesome sectors of the economy (in black) and the sad fat trombone bleat of everyone else (in grey). That’s labor moving from high productivity to low productivity. It’s labor leaving the factory and greeting people at Walmart, and it’s a curve that’s been sliding down for thirty years.

It’s not going to get better for a very long time, and this does very much look like the new normal.